Crude oil

International crude oil prices fell slightly overnight. The main Brent contract in March closed around $64.5 per barrel. The overall trend is still in a volatile trend after the previous high drop. Judging from the news, the domestic turmoil in Libya has a relatively short-term impact on oil prices, and the spread of new domestic viruses in China has dampened the market's optimism to a certain extent and suppressed the overall risk assets. Overall, we believe that oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, domestic main 2005 contract of PTA fluctuated and went down, and the futures price fell below the ¥4,900 per ton, while the main 2005 contract of MEG continued the previous downward trend. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the terminal weaving enterprises have ceased to work, and the operating load of polyester enterprises has gradually declined. As far as PTA is concerned, the spot processing fee dropped to around ¥520 per ton yesterday, which was nearly ¥100 per ton narrower than the previous trading day. From the point of view of MEG, the new equipment put into operation and the continuous opening of the import window have caused significant pressure on supply, but the 05 contract is still heavily discounted to the spot, causing its price to decline or be further restricted. Therefore, considering the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, in operation, it is recommended that short position of PTA and MEG stop profit gradually and leave the market.

Natural Rubber

The offered price of Qingdao rubber in USD was scarce. The forward price of STR closed at $1,540 to $1,560 per ton. The price of mixed rubber from Thailand in the bonded area closed at $1,530 to $1,535 per ton. Overseas rubber slumped. The main force contract of TF05 fell by 3.1 or 2.03% and closed at 149.7. The main force contract of JUR06 fell by 0.6 or 0.31% and closed at 192.4. The SHFE rubber went weak. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 55 or 0.44% and closed at 12,565, and the main force contract of NR04 fell by 10 or 0.09% and closed at 10,550.

QinRex News: Along Korn, adviser to the Minister of Rural Cooperatives of Thailand, said on the 19th that according to the contract between the National Rubber Bureau and three private companies, about 1,350 tons of rubber will be delivered, including 300 tons of concentrated latex and 800 tons of No. 20 standard rubber and 250 tons of RSS3. The National Rubber Bureau of Thailand signed 11 letters of intent for purchase with foreign institutions and private companies, including the purchase of 2.5 million cubic feet (about 150,000 tons) of rubber wood, 4 billion baht of latex pillows, and a total of 429,000 tons of other rubber products, worth 260 Billion baht.

Rainfall in Thailand continued to be at a low level in January. Recently, only a few light rains were observed in the main producing provinces. The output-weighted rainfall was 0.37mm, which was 15.5% of the average of 2.39mm. With the spread of the new pneumonia epidemic, various measures to prevent and control the flow of people and logistics have been strengthened, which has curtailed people's livelihood consumption, including tourism and catering, and weighed on the economy.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber was weak relatively and fluctuated with commodities. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to watch and see and pay attention to the support at the mid-term low level at 12,500 below.

(For reference only)