Iron Ore: The resumption of production has been confirmed, and the iron ore fluctuates strongly.

Logic and perspective:

Yesterday, Ganggu.com announced the production and sales of steel products across the country and central and southwestern China. The data shows that the national output of building materials was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons on a weekly basis. The output of building materials in the Midwest was 1.49 million tons, an increase of 170,000 tons on a weekly basis. Although the production of hot-rolled coils in the country and in the central and western regions has declined on a weekly basis, overall production has recovered and the resumption of steel production has been confirmed. As of the close, the iron ore 2205 contract closed at 695 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day.

On the whole, the Central Economic Work Conference requires all regions and departments to take the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. The crude steel production restriction task has been completed ahead of schedule, and it is expected that the future production restriction will become more moderate. Although iron ore is still in a state of high inventory, if the consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil continues to improve, it is expected to be quickly transmitted to the mine end (destocking) after the release of output control. Long-flow steel mills’ immediate profits are still high, coupled with the steel mill’s expected resumption of production and restocking before the Spring Festival, it is still expected to boost ore prices.

Strategies:

Unilateral: fluctuate at high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks: The implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production restriction policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.

Rubber: Port inventories continued to decline, and the rate of decline slowed.

On January 5, the most-active RU contract closed at 14750 (+55) yuan/ton, the price of mixed rubber reported 13100 (+75) yuan/ton, and the basis of most-active contract stood at -900 yuan/ton (+145); the open interest of top 20 actively traded long positions was 108175 (+4910) lots, the short position was 165141 (+1923) lots, and the net short position was 56966 (+2987) lots.

On January 5, the most-active NR contract closed at 11710 (+115) yuan/ton, the STR in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reported 1,790 (+25) US dollars/ton, the SMR stood at 1,780 (+25) US dollars/ton, and the SIR figure was 1,800 (+15) US dollars/ton.

As of December 31: the total inventory of domestic exchanges was 230855 (+2800)tons, and the amount of warehouse receipts of exchanges was 208410 (+1820)tons.

Raw materials: Sheet rubber 53.55 (+0.35), cup lump 46.65 (+0.5), latex 51.5 (+2.5), RSS3 57.93 (+0.57).

As of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire factories was 61.72% (-2.14%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire factories was 63.7% (-0.05%).

Opinion: Yesterday, the domestic Qingdao port inventory continued to decline as of last weekend, but the decline has slowed down compared to the previous few weeks, mainly due to the slowdown in downstream procurement. The operating rate of domestic tire factories is affected by the weak domestic terminal demand and seasonal off-season, resulting in the accumulation of finished product inventory and the upward pressure on the operating rate. Domestic demand is weak, but based on domestic easing expectations, rubber demand is still expected to improve after the year. Supply-side support still comes from the continuous destocking of domestic port inventory, and it is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. Epidemic recurring

2. The spread between futures and spot prices continues to widen

3. Weak demand

Crude oil: OPEC maintains its original production increase plan unchanged.

At the recent monthly ministerial meeting, OPEC decided to maintain the original production increase plan unchanged, that is, to continue to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in February. This is basically in line with our previous expectations, that is, in the case of Omi Keron's low impact on demand, OPEC is unlikely to stop increasing production or reduce production again. However, OPEC is still facing the problem that the actual increase in production is not as good as expected. Due to the decline in actual effective production capacity in countries such as Nigeria and Angola, OPEC’s actual increase in production is less than 400,000 barrels per day, and the actual monthly increase in production may remain at 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. Therefore, in the case of OPEC countries increasing production proportionally, it will be normal for OPEC to increase production below the target. In terms of magnitude, OPEC’s increase in production has a limited impact on current market demand. However, as future demand growth slows, the supply-demand gap will be significantly narrowed this year.

Strategy: tend to be neutrally bullish in the short term; Oil prices are currently at the upper edge of the range, investors can go short positions in the medium term

Risk: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

Copper: The rise in U.S. bond yields suppresses copper prices, but the feedback on inflation expectations is still positive.

View:

On the macro front, the number of U.S. ADP employment increased by 807,000 in December, which greatly exceeded expectations, increasing investors’ confidence in the Fed’s withdrawal of easing and interest rate hikes this year. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting announced yesterday showed that almost all officials at the December meeting believed that it might be appropriate to start shrinking the balance sheet sometime after the first rate hike. Some officials predict that the pace of the current round of balance sheet contraction cycles may be faster than the previous round. The announcement of the minutes pushed the dollar to rebound and U.S. bond yields accelerated upward.

From a fundamental point of view, consumption rebounded slightly as the Shanghai copper market gradually returned, and the overall supply of goods was still tight when market inventories were still at a low level. The right to speak on prices is in the hands of the holders. The rising sentiment of holders of supporting prices has led to an increase in the premiums and discounts of Shanghai copper. Guangdong's electrolytic copper inventory declined slightly, the supply was tight and there were few shippers, which led to a sharp increase in the premiums and discounts of copper in South China. In terms of scrap copper, the spread between refined copper and scrap continued to stay above a reasonable range. In terms of imports, LME0-3 continues the Back structure, and the import window is closed. Import losses expanded again, and overall market transactions were insipid. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE are destocked.

On the whole, the Fed's decision was hawkish, and rising U.S. bond yields suppressed copper prices. However, as crude oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, it is recommended to maintain a bargain-hunting attitude towards copper prices.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Cautiously bullish

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Inflection point of inventory

2. The trend of the US dollar index

3. The risk of the epidemic may increase.

PTA: PX processing fees continue to rebound strongly.

1. PX processing fees rebounded strongly.

(1) Under the background of low processing costs in the early stage, most of the Korean installations have reduced the production load to around 70% - 80%. India's OMPL restart is postponed. Hengli's 4.75 million tons of PX production capacity has been reduced by 15-20% on December 23, and the recovery time is yet to be determined. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX 9 million tons production load is still 65% to 70%, and the speed of increasing the production load is still slow. Under the background of Zhejiang Petrochemical's under-full load, Asia's PX will slightly destock from January to February, and PX processing fees rebounded strongly.

(2) Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons production capacity restart plan was postponed to mid-January.

2. PTA processing fees are still supported.

(1) The PTA operating rate has returned to a short-term high, and Hengli’s progress in signing the long-term contract next year is still slow. If the signing is still not successful in January, the circulation of subsequent traders may be tightened, and the PTA processing fee will be supported.

3. The terminal production load is still low, but the progress of the filament production reduction is not as good as expected.

Balance sheet outlook: It is expected that it will enter the seasonal accumulation phase in January, but the accumulation rate of inventory is controllable.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. PTA processing fees are still strong in the short term, and PX processing fees continue to rebound.

(2) Intertemporal: take a wait-and-see attitude.

Risks: The price of crude oil fluctuates sharply; PTA factory long-term contract signing progress; Zhejiang Petrochemical PX new plant production load increase progress; polyester plant joint production reduction progress.

铁矿石：复产即为事实，铁矿石震荡偏强

逻辑和观点：

昨日，钢谷网公布了全国及中西南钢材产销情况，数据显示：全国建材产量418万吨，周度环比增加33万吨，中西部建材产量149万吨，周度环比增加17万吨，全国及中西部热卷产量周度环比虽有回落，但是整体而言产量仍有恢复，钢材复产即为事实。截止收盘，铁矿石2205合约收于695元/吨，较前日上涨9元/吨

整体来看，中央经济工作会议要求，明年经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进，各地区各部门要担负起稳定宏观经济的责任，各方面要积极推出有利于经济稳定的政策，政策发力适当靠前；粗钢压产任务已提前完成，预计后期限产将变得更为温和，虽然铁矿仍在高库存状态，如果成材消费持续向好，有望在产量管制放松后快速向矿端传导（去库）。长流程钢厂即期利润依旧偏高，叠加钢厂的复产预期，且春节前例行补库，仍有望提振矿价。

策略：

单边：震荡偏强

跨期：无

跨品种：无

期现：无

期权：无

关注及风险点：粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：港口库存继续下降，降幅有所放缓

5号，RU主力收盘14750（+55）元/吨，混合胶报价13100元/吨（+75），主力合约基差-900元/吨（+145）；前二十主力多头持仓108175（+4910），空头持仓165141（+1923），净空持仓56966（+2987）。

5号，NR主力收盘价11710（+115）元/吨，青岛保税区泰国标胶1790（+25）美元/吨，马来西亚标胶1780美元/吨（+25），印尼标胶1800（+15）美元/吨。

截至12月31日：交易所总库存230855（+2800），交易所仓单208410（+1820）。

原料：生胶片53.55（+0.35），杯胶46.65（+0.5），胶水51.5（+2.5），烟片57.93（+0.57）。

截止12月30日，国内全钢胎开工率为61.72%（-2.14%），国内半钢胎开工率为63.7%(-0.05%）。

观点：昨天截至上周末国内青岛港口库存继续下降，但降幅相对前几周有所放缓。主要因下游拿货有所放缓，国内轮胎厂开工率因国内终端需求偏弱以及季节性淡季，带来成品库存累积且开工率上行压力也在增加，最近两周都在环比下降。国内现实需求呈现弱势，但基于国内宽松预期，年后橡胶需求仍有改善预期。供应端支撑仍来自国内港口库存的持续去化，预计胶价延续重心上移的震荡格局。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险：疫情反复，期现价差持续拉大，需求示弱等。

原油：欧佩克维持原有增产计划不变

在近日的月度部长会议上，欧佩克决定维持原有增产计划不变，即2月份继续增产40万桶/日，这基本符合我们此前预期，即在奥密克戎对需求冲击影响较低的情况下，欧佩克不太可能停止增产或者再度减产，不过欧佩克目前仍旧面临实际增产不及预期的问题，由于尼日利亚、安哥拉等国家实际有效产能下降，欧佩克实际增产幅度低于40万桶/日，每月实际增产量或维持在20至30万桶/日，因此在欧佩克各国按比例增产的情况下，欧佩克增产低于目标的情况将是常态化，而从量级来看，欧佩克增产的数量对于当前的市场需求而言冲击有限，但随着未来需求增长放缓，供需缺口将在今年显著缩窄。

策略：短期中性偏强，油价位于区间上沿，中期空头对待

风险：中东地缘政治风险

铜：美债收益率上行抑制铜价 但通胀预期反馈仍然正向

观点：

宏观方面，美国12月ADP就业人数增加80.7万人，大幅超出预期，增加投资者对美联储今年撤宽松加息的信心。昨日公布的美联储会议纪要显示，12月会上几乎所有官员都认为，可能适合在首次加息后某个时候开始缩表，有官员预计本轮缩表周期的速度可能比前一轮快，纪要的公布推动美元反弹以及美债收益率加速上行。

基本面来看，沪铜市场逐步回归之际消费小幅回暖，且在市场库存仍处于低位的行情下，整体货源依旧偏紧，价格话语权掌控在持货商手里，持货商挺价情绪升温，沪铜升贴水上升；广东电铜库存小幅下降，货源紧张出货者寥寥无几，华南铜升贴水大幅走高。废铜方面，精废价差持续在合理区间上方。进口方面，LME0-3持续Back结构，进口窗口关闭，进口亏损再次扩大，市场交投整体清淡。库存方面，LME及 SHFE均去库。

整体看来，美联储鹰声嘹亮，美债收益率上升对铜价形成压制，但由于原油价格持续上行推升通胀预期，故此铜价维持逢低吸入的态度。

策略：

1. 单边：谨慎看多 2. 跨市：内外反套 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 库存拐点 2.美元指数走势 3.疫情风险加剧

PTA：PX加工费继续强势反弹

一、PX加工费强势反弹

（1）前期低加工费背景下，韩国装置大部分降至7-8成运行，印度OMPL重启推迟，恒力475万吨PX，12月23日负荷下调15-20%，恢复时间待定。前期PX加工费过低，韩国供应商对PTA工厂的长约签订不积极，市场担忧更多亏损性减产出现，PX加工费强势反弹。浙石化PX900万吨负荷仍在65%至70%，提负仍偏慢。浙石化未满负荷背景下，亚洲PX1-2月小幅去库，PX加工费超跌反弹。（2）中金石化160万吨原1月上中旬检修计划再度推迟，浙石化200万吨重启计划推迟至1月中。

二、PTA加工费仍有支撑

（1）PTA开工率已恢复至短期高位，恒力下年长约签订进度仍慢，若1月仍未顺利签订，或后续贸易商环节的流通量或有所收紧，支撑PTA加工费。

三、终端负荷仍偏低，但长丝减产进度不及预期

平衡表展望：1月预期进入季节性累库阶段，但累库速率可控。

策略建议：（1）谨慎偏多。PTA加工费短期仍偏强，PX加工费持续反弹。（2）跨期套利：观望。

风险：原油价格大幅波动，PTA工厂长约签订进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂减产力度。