Iron Ore: Disturbing factors increase, and ore prices continue to be under pressure.

Iron ore prices rebounded significantly last week. Although shipments and arrivals have increased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, as the profits of downstream steel mills are restored, and the news is that real estate credit may loosen the margins, the market generally expects that the resumption of production by steel mills will drive the demand for iron ore, and the price of iron ore will generally rebound. As of last Friday's close, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 575.5 yuan/ton, up 39.5 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the lowest price of the four main ports is 666 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 104 yuan/ton on a weekly basis; the SSF is 428 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 66 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. In terms of basis, little change has been made. The Platts 62% U.S. dollar index was 103 U.S. dollars, a week-on-week increase of 16 U.S. dollars.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume is 32.8 million tons, an increase of 5.66 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, shipments from Australia increased by 2.72 million tons from the previous month to 18.19 million tons; shipments from Brazil increased by 1.5 million tons from the previous month to 6.09 million tons; non-mainstream shipments increased by 7.01 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons on a weekly basis.

On the demand side, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a 69.66% blast furnace operating rate, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.67%. The average daily molten iron output was 2.0167 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 444,600 tons.

In terms of inventory, this week Mysteel calculated that the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports in China was 152.5147 million tons, and the accumulated inventory was 1.4528 million tons compared with the previous month. The daily average port congestion volume was 2.8141 million tons, a decrease of 83,400 tons from the previous month. At present, the number of ships in the port has dropped by 9 to 158.

On the whole, last week's shipment volume and arrival volume both increased, and the overall supply side continued to be loose. On the demand side, although the profit restoration of steel mills has driven some steel mills to actively resume production, due to the increase in the maintenance of regional steel mills with limited production, the average daily molten iron output has reached a new low, and the actual increase in demand is not obvious. Global shipments may continue to increase next week, downstream steel mills still have new maintenance plans, and the medium-term supply and demand easing pattern will remain unchanged. In addition, the discovery of a new variant of the new crown virus strain in South Africa has aroused concern in the international community, and fluctuations in the external market may increase. Under the influence of multiple factors, iron ore prices continued to be under pressure this week.

Strategies:

Unilateral: tend to be neutrally bearish in the long term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. China relaxes or stimulates economic or real estate policies

2. Large-scale production cuts in the mine

3. Risk of rising sea freight

Rubber: The mutated virus reappears, and demand concerns increase.

In the first half of last week, prices continued to rise under the support of tight domestic supply. In the second half of the week, as the spread between futures and spot prices continued to widen, hedging pressure increased and the rise was blocked. On Friday, when the domestic epidemic suddenly appeared and the global mutant virus reappeared, the market's worries about the demand side gradually increased, and the futures price dropped significantly.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of November 26 was 188,350 tons (+8827), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 140,470 tons (+12,300). The domestic main producing areas in Yunnan ceased delivery at the end of November, and the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the future. As of November 21, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the decline continued to increase month-on-month. This is mainly due to the increase in downstream purchases, and the arrivals at ports have always been small. In the future, we need to pay attention to the turning point of accumulated inventory.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of November 25, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 65.96% (+0.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 62.25% (+0.99%). Downstream tire factories increased production for the small peak of domestic demand in the future, which led to a continued recovery in operating rates last week. Based on concerns about future power restrictions, the short-term operating rate is expected to be maintained.

Opinion: At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the main focus is still on the supply side. The emergence of the mutant virus in South Africa last weekend brought some uncertainty to the market, and the worries on the demand side reappeared. If the infection level of the new virus will be higher than that of the mutated virus in India, it may bring about a renewed tightening of global control. In addition, the current increase in rubber futures due to the excessively rapid increase in futures prices has increased the short-term adjustment pressure on the market. In the future, the release of market sentiment needs to pay attention to the overall market atmosphere.

Strategy: Neutral

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The virus mutation has caused market concerns, and oil prices have plummeted.

The latest variant of the new coronavirus, Omicron, discovered in South Africa last Friday caused panic in the market, causing oil prices to fall by more than 10% on Friday. This black swan incident has made the market worry that future variants may spread rapidly around the world. The tightening of the national defense epidemic policy has led to a sharp drop in oil demand again, and what worries the market is that there is still greater uncertainty about whether the vaccine is effective against the new virus. Judging from the current situation, Omicron has spread rapidly in South Africa and other African countries, and related cases have been found in Europe, Hong Kong and other places. WHO recognizes Omicron as a variant of close attention (VOC). At the same time, the United States, Britain and other countries have taken swift actions to restrict entry into South Africa and other places. In addition, many pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer have begun to study and test the effectiveness of their vaccines against new variants. They stated that they could adjust the existing mRNA vaccines to the new virus within 6 weeks, and begin shipping the first batch of vaccines 100 days after the escape variant is identified. Up to now, the information about the virus itself is not sufficient, and further observation and official authoritative information are still needed. The market’s concerns about Omicron are mainly reflected in three aspects: infectiousness, vaccine effectiveness, and severe or fatalities. For now, Omicron has more mutations than Delta, so its high infectivity seems unavoidable. The current infection curve of the epidemic in South Africa also seems to confirm the high infectivity of the current virus, and the effectiveness of the vaccine and the fatality rate of severe cases need to wait for more data or the results of pharmaceutical companies to know.

In terms of the specific impact on the oil market, we believe that Friday’s decline was more due to the black swan incident in the epidemic and poor market liquidity during Thanksgiving. In the absence of key information about the variant virus, the market reacted slightly to overreaction. However, since all countries have announced travel restrictions on African epidemic hotspots including South Africa in the first time, this is a major negative for the jet fuel consumption that is currently recovering. And if subsequent countries’ anti-epidemic measures are further tightened, and cross-border business travel is tightened again, it is not ruled out that jet fuel consumption will turn down. And if the new virus spreads within the world's major economies, it will affect the oil transportation consumption of all countries. At present, the traffic congestion index in major regions of the world has recovered to a level above 90%. If there is the most pessimistic situation, that is, the current vaccines are less effective against the new virus and have a higher fatality rate, under the situation that the global epidemic prevention is tightened again, it is not ruled out that a repeat in April 2020 will occur. At that time, oil consumption plummeted by nearly 20% in one month. Although all countries have more experience in the prevention and control of the new crown, even if it affects 5% of oil consumption, the marginal impact on next year's supply and demand balance sheet will be very large. In addition, major countries including the United States have decided to release reserves, which makes oil prices next year more inclined to downside risks.

Taking into account the current epidemic situation, whether OPEC will respond is the focus of market attention. In the second half of this year, OPEC's production increase was not as expected. In addition to the demand for high oil prices and the possibility of Iran's return to the market, the uncertainty of the epidemic is also one of the main reasons. We believe that the current variants of the epidemic will allow OPEC to further review its own production increase plan, and we do not rule out reducing the scale of production increase or even reducing production again in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is difficult for oil prices to repeat the black swan market in the second quarter of last year, and more likely to fluctuate within a relatively reasonable range.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk:

1. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East

2. The impact of the variant virus is less than expected.

Copper: The epidemic hits again, and copper prices are also weakening.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper in the week of November 26 was at RMB 71,570/ton and RMB 72,570/ton. Last week showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The premium and discount offer hovered from 225 yuan/ton to 1,175 yuan/ton, showing a continued downward trend.

View:

On the macro level, the epidemic has returned, and the epidemic in some European countries is severe. At present, Austria has implemented a nationwide blockade, and Germany has accumulated more than 100,000 deaths. It has almost implemented a nationwide blockade following Austria's footsteps. On November 25, the South African National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NICD) issued a statement stating that South Africa has detected a new variant of the new coronavirus strain called B.1.1.529. The UK called the newly discovered variant strain "the worst so far." The number of mutations is twice that of the current Delta variant strain, which can evade the immune response of the human body, and the existing new crown vaccine may be ineffective against it. At present, the United Kingdom has planned to include 6 African countries on the travel red list. The impact of the epidemic is gradually fermenting, and the decline in crude oil today is also partly due to this. The minutes of the Fed meeting this week signaled a willingness to speed up Taper and even raise interest rates ahead of schedule in order to suppress high inflation. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States announced before the minutes of the meeting dropped unexpectedly last week, hitting a single-week low since 1969. The PCE price index, an inflation indicator favored by the Fed, hit the highest year-on-year growth rate in 31 years in October. Inflation is currently high, and unemployment data has delivered good news for the job market. The market’s expectations for the Fed’s hawkish tendency to raise interest rates ahead of schedule are unabated. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a symposium to study a long-term mechanism to prevent coal prices from rising and falling behind. The black products fell across the board on Thursday night, dragging down the non-ferrous sector. On Friday, again dragged down by the epidemic, thermal coal fell to a limit in the afternoon, and the non-ferrous sector fell significantly.

On the whole, the impact of the decline in the black series on copper prices currently appears to be a short-term emotional shock, and the impact of the epidemic has now become a major factor. The decline in premiums and discounts and the convergence of spreads seem to have eased the tightness of the spot market, but the current inventory is still low. At the same time, there is a certain demand support for enterprises to rush to replenish goods at the end of the year. Considering that the epidemic will not only change demand expectations, it will also have an impact on the current supply chain. Therefore, we should continue to observe changes in inventory and the impact of the epidemic. If the low inventory status is maintained and the epidemic does not undergo further fermentation, it is judged that the price will remain volatile. If the impact of the epidemic appears, there may be a risk of breaking the price in the short term.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: Neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Accumulated inventory turning point

2. Monetary policy orientation

3. Energy crisis risk

PTA: The sharp drop in crude oil dragged down the cost of PTA, and polyester plants concentrated on reducing production.

Last Friday compared with this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4796 yuan/ton, compared with -146 yuan/ton the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA is 4736 yuan/ton, which is -136 yuan/ton compared to last week; TA basis is -60 yuan/ton, which is +10 yuan/ton compared to last week; PTA processing fee is 557 yuan/ton, which is +87 yuan/ton compared to last week. Tons; PX 866 USD/ton, compared with last week -47 USD/ton; PX processing fee is 146 USD/ton, compared with last week -9 USD/ton.

In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 78.1% (+8.8%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 75.9% (+4.8%). Zhejiang Petrochemical PX continues to increase the load, the total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical rose to 85% to 90%, and the second 2.5 million tons production line of the second phase is scheduled to start next week. Asia PX has entered a period of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory, but PX processing fees have been compressed to a low level on the left.

In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate was 82.8% (+1.6%) this week, which is still high. Shenghong recovered 1.5 million tons and Fuhaichuang recovered to 90%. The current PTA processing fee is higher than 550, but the compression space below is limited. In December, there are expectations for the maintenance of 2.5 million tons of Hengli and 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dahua, focusing on the degree of implementation.

On the whole, crude oil fell sharply on November 26, dragging down the PTA cost-type decline. PX Zhejiang Petrochemical has added 2.5 million tons of new production capacity and put into production. PX has entered a cycle of continuous and rapid accumulation of inventory, and PX is expected to continue to run at the bottom. This week, the PTA processing fee was higher than 550, and the polyester factory was expected to reduce production and reduce the load. In December, the balance sheet changed from a small destocking to a continuous accumulation expectation. However, the space for further compression of PTA processing fees is also limited. If processing fees are low or attract loss-making overhauls to rebalance.

Balance sheet outlook: Under the background of full implementation of PTA maintenance, December will end the inventory accumulation cycle and enter a small destocking phase. Pay attention to the implementation of follow-up PTA enterprise maintenance.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Crude oil dragged down PTA prices; PX Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity suppressed processing fees; PTA processing fees were overestimated in the short-term and there was a correction demand.

(2) Intertemporal: In December, the accumulation of inventory was expected again, and the 1-5 spread reverse strategy ended.

Risks: Crude oil price fluctuations; Implementation progress of PTA factory maintenance under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：干扰因素增多，矿价延续承压

上周铁矿石价格明显反弹，虽然发运量、到港量齐增，港口库存也延续累库，但随着下游钢厂利润修复，叠加消息面对房地产信贷可能边际放松的烘托，市场普遍预期钢厂复产将带动铁矿需求，铁矿价格整体也呈反弹走势。截止上周五收盘，铁矿01合约报收575.5元/吨，周环比上涨39.5元/吨。现货方面，日青京曹四港最低价666元/吨，周度环比涨104元/吨，超特粉428元/吨，周度环比涨66元/吨。普氏62%美金指数103美金，周度环比涨16美金。

供应方面，本期Mysteel新口径全球发运总量3280万吨，周度环比增加566万吨，其中澳洲发运量环比增加272万吨至1819万吨；巴西发运量环比增加150万吨至609万吨；非主流发运701万吨，周度环比增加143万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率69.66%，环比上周下降0.69%，同比去年下降16.67%；日均铁水产量201.67万吨，环比下降0.31万吨，同比下降44.46万吨。

库存方面，本周Mysteel统计中国45港铁矿石库存总量15251.47万吨，环比累库145.28万吨。日均疏港量281.41万吨，环比降8.34万吨。目前在港船舶数158条降9条。

整体来看，上周发运量和到港量双增，港口疏港量降低，整体供应端延续宽松状态；需求端，虽然钢厂利润修复带动部分钢厂积极复产，但因区域限产钢厂检修增多，日均铁水产量创新低，实际需求增量并不明显。下周全球发运或将延续增量，下游钢厂仍有新出检修计划，中期供需宽松格局不变；另外，南非发现新的新冠变异毒株，引发国际社会担忧，外围市场波动或将加大。多重因素影响下，本周铁矿价格仍延续承压。

策略：

单边：长线中性偏空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：国家对经济或房地产政策放松或刺激，矿山出现大范围减产，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：变异病毒再现，需求担忧加大

上周胶价重心继续上移，上半周价格在国内供应偏紧支撑下，继续上行，下半周随着期现价差的持续拉大，盘面套保压力增加，上涨受阻，周五则在国内疫情突然以及全球变异病毒重现，市场对于需求端担忧升温，期价明显回落。

国内交易所总库存截止11月26为188350吨（+8827），期货仓单量140470吨（+12300），国内云南主产区11月底停割，后期仓单增量将放缓。截至11月21日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，降幅环比继续增加，主要因下游拿货增加，而到港量始终偏少。后期关注累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止11月25日，全钢胎企业开工率65.96%（+0.48%），半钢胎企业开工率62.25%（+0.99%）。下游轮胎厂为后期的国内小高峰加大生产带来上周开工率延续回升，基于后期限电的担忧，短期开工率有望保持。

观点：目前橡胶基本面变化不大，主要的焦点还是在供应端，上周末南非变异病毒的出现又给市场带来了一定的不确定性，需求端的担忧重现，目前还需要观测病毒的传染程度，如果甚于印度的变异病毒则可能带来全球管控的重新趋严，叠加当前橡胶因期货价格上涨过快导致的期现拉大都使得盘面的短期调整压力增加，盘面价格对于市场情绪的释放完毕还需关注整体市场氛围。

策略：中性

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：病毒变异引发市场担忧，油价大幅下挫

上周五南非发现的最新新冠病毒变种Omicron导致市场出现恐慌情绪，周五油价跌幅超过10%，这一黑天鹅事件让市场担忧未来变种可能在全球快速传播，各国防疫政策再度收紧导致石油需求再度大幅回落，且令市场担忧的是疫苗对新病毒是否有效目前仍有较大的不确定性。从目前的情况来看，Omicron已经在南非等多个非洲国家快速传播，而欧洲、香港等地也已经发现相关个例，WHO认定Omicron为密切关注变种（VOC），同时美国、英国等国家已经迅速采取行动限制南非等地的入境，此外，多家药厂如辉瑞都已经开始研究测试其疫苗对新变种的有效性，并表示可以再6周内调整现有mRNA疫苗以适用于新病毒，并在逃逸变种被识别出来的100天开始首批疫苗的发货。截至目前关于病毒本身的信息还不充分，仍有待进一步观察和官方权威信息，市场对于Omicron的担忧主要体现在三个方面：传染性、疫苗有效性、重症或致死率。就目前来看由于Omicron相比Delta有更多的突变，因此其高传染性似乎无法避免，当前南非的疫情感染曲线也似乎证实当前病毒的高传染性，而疫苗有效性和重症致死率需要等待更多数据或者药厂结果才能知晓。

具体到对石油市场的影响来看，我们认为周五的下跌更多是在疫情出现黑天鹅事件叠加感恩节期间市场流动性较差所致，在仍旧缺乏变种病毒关键信息的情况下，市场反应略显过度，不过由于各国均在第一时间公布了对南非在内的非洲疫情热点地区的旅行限制，这对于目前尚处于复苏的航煤消费是重大利空，而如果后续各国防疫措施进一步收紧，跨境商旅再度收紧的情况下，不排除航煤消费会掉头向下，而如果新病毒在全球主要经济体内部扩散，那么将会影响各国的石油交通消费，目前全球主要地区的交通拥堵指数已经恢复至90%以上水平，如果出现最悲观的情况，即当前疫苗对新病毒有效性较弱且有较高的重症致死率，全球防疫再度收紧的情况下，不排除会出现2020年4月的重演，当时石油消费在1个月时间内暴跌近20%，虽然由于各国已经对新冠有了较多的防控经验，但即便是影响石油消费5%，对于明年的供需平衡表的边际影响都会非常大，且叠加美国在内的各大国家已经决定抛储，这使得明年的油价更加倾向于下行风险。

考虑到目前的疫情形势，欧佩克是否会做出应对是市场关注的焦点，今年下半年欧佩克增产不及预期，除了对于高油价的需求以及伊朗重返市场的可能性外，疫情的不确定性也是其中的主要原因之一，我们认为当前出现疫情变种会让欧佩克进一步审视自己的增产计划，不排除在未来缩减增产规模甚至再度减产，因此我们认为油价很难再度重演去年二季度时的黑天鹅行情，更多是在一个相对合理的区间波动。

策略：中性偏空，做多柴油裂解价差

风险：中东地缘政治风险，变种病毒影响不及预期

铜：疫情再度来袭 铜价同样呈现走弱

现货情况：

据SMM讯，11月26日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于71,570元/吨72,570元/吨，周度呈先扬后抑的走势。升贴水报价在225元/吨至1175元/吨徘徊，呈现持续走低的态势。

观点：

宏观方面，疫情卷土重来，部分欧洲国家疫情严峻，目前奥地利已实行全国封锁，德国累计死亡逾10万例，险些步奥地利后尘实行全国封锁。11月25日，南非国家传染病研究所（NICD）发表声明称，南非检测到被称为B.1.1.529的新变种新冠毒株。英国称最新发现的变种毒株为“迄今为止最糟糕的”，其突变数量是目前德尔塔变种毒株的两倍，能躲避人体的免疫反应，现有的新冠疫苗可能对其无效。目前英国已计划将6个非洲国家列入旅行红色名单，暂定被列入红色名单国家通往英国。疫情影响逐渐发酵，今日原油下跌也与此有部分原因。本周美联储会议纪要释放了愿为打压高通胀而加快Taper甚至提前加息的信号。会议纪要前公布的美国上周首次申请失业救济人数超预期下降，创1969年来单周新低；而美联储青睐的通胀指标PCE物价指数10月创31年最高同比增速。通胀目前高企，失业数据又传递了就业市场的好消息，市场对美联储鹰派倾向提前加息的期望不减。国内方面，在国家发改委公布召开座谈会研究调控长效机制防止煤价大起大落后，黑色系商品周四夜盘全线下跌，拖累有色板块。周五受疫情的再度拖累，午后动力煤跌停，有色板块下跌幅度明显。

整体来看，黑色系的下跌对铜价的影响目前看来为短期情绪冲击，疫情的影响目前成为主要因素。升贴水的下降以及价差收敛从表象上来看现货紧张态势缓解，但目前库存仍处低位，同时，年末企业赶工补货存在一定的需求支撑。考虑到疫情不仅改变需求预期，也会对目前供应链产生冲击，因此，应持续观测库存变动以及疫情影响，如低库存状态维持，疫情未做进一步发酵，则判断价格将维持震荡。如疫情冲击显现，则短期价格可能存在破位风险。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：原油大跌拖累PTA成本下挫，聚酯工厂集中减产

上周五较本周五变化，TA2201收于4796元/吨，较前一周-146元/吨。现货方面，PTA4736元/吨，较上周-136元/吨，TA基差-60元/吨，较上周+10元/吨，PTA加工费557元/吨，较上周+87元/吨；PX866美元/吨，较上周-47美元/吨，PX加工费146美元/吨，较上周-9美元/吨。

PX供应方面，本周CCF的PX中国开工率78.1%（+8.8%），PX亚洲开工率75.9%（+4.8%）。浙石化PX继续提负，浙石化总开工率上升至85%至90%，且二期第二条250万吨计划下周出品，亚洲PX进入持续快速累库周期。但PX加工费已左侧压缩至低位。

PTA供应方面，本周CCF的PTA开工率82.8%（+1.6%）开工仍处于偏高位置。盛虹150万吨恢复，福海创恢复至9成。目前PTA加工费偏高在550以上，但下方压缩空间有限，12月有恒力250万吨以及逸盛大化225万吨等装置检修预期，关注兑现程度。

终端供需方面，江浙织机开工66%（-4%），加弹82%（+0%），江浙地区仍有局部限电；终端新订单小幅反弹，对长丝投机补库天数小幅回升。本周本周长丝库存压力缓解，本周POY库存天数19.2天（-2.4）、FDY库存天数26.1天（-2.9）、DTY库存天数19.5天（-0.6）。聚酯整体开工率87.7%（-0.1%），直纺长丝开工率71.6%（-11.7%）。聚酯工厂有联合减产计划，预期12-1月聚酯开工率降至83%以下。

涤短工厂开工率85.5%（+2.1%），涤短工厂权益库存天数1.4天（-4.6），短纤产销放量，库存快速回落。瓶片工厂开工率77.5%（+0.2%），瓶片工厂库存天数回落至一周以内。

总体来看，11月26日原油大幅下挫，拖累PTA成本型下挫。PX浙石化新增产能250万吨投产，PX进入持续快速累库周期，PX预期持续底部运行。本周PTA加工费在550以上偏高，聚酯工厂集中减产降负预期下，12月平衡表从小幅去库重新转为持续累库预期。但PTA加工费再压缩空间亦有限，若加工费低位或吸引亏损性检修以再平衡。

策略：

单边：谨慎看空，原油拖累PTA成本型下挫，PX浙石化新增产能压制加工费，PTA加工费短期高估有回调需求。

跨期套利：12月再度累库预期，1-5价差反套

关注及风险点：

原油价格波动，PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX新装置提负进度，聚酯工厂联合减产进度