Iron Ore: The consumption of thread and hot-rolled coil collapses, and iron ore may usher in a cold winter.

Last week, the Steel Union announced the production, sales and inventory status of the five building materials commonly used in construction. The data shows that the total consumption of the five major materials is 9.47 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the thread consumption decreased by 30,000 tons, and the hot-rolled coil consumption decreased by 40,000 tons. The current time is an absolute peak season, and the performance of this set of data is significantly lower than market expectations. As the temperature in the north turns cold, steel consumption is expected to continue to decline. At the same time, since the 2205 contract for iron ore, the exchange adjusted the delivery rules in the early stage. At the same time, due to the drop in the spread between low and medium grade products, resulting in the rotation of iron ore delivery products, the space below the price of iron ore may open up. As of the close of last Friday, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 536 points, down 11 points on a week-on-week basis. In terms of spot, the lowest price of PB in the four main ports was 572 yuan/ton, which was down 33 yuan/ton on a weekly basis; SSF was 372 yuan/ton, which was down 8 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. In terms of basis, both futures and spot prices fell.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume was 27.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.48 million tons. Among them, Australia's shipping volume decreased by 2.7 million tons from the previous week to 15.47 million tons, which was basically stable. Brazil's shipment volume decreased by 230,000 tons from the previous week to 6.09 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 5.58 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 550,000 tons.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 70.34%, a decrease of 1.24% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 16.11%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 75.35%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.29%; the profit rate of steel mills was 42.86% (the lowest in 5 years), which was down 6.93% week-on-week and 49.78% year-on-year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.019 million tons, down 10,200 tons from the previous week and 419,500 tons year-on-year. The blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel plants was 48.62%, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.69%, which was an increase of 0.10% from the previous week. The utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 63.89%, a decrease of 20.39% from the same period last year, and the profit rate of steel mills was 39.26%, a decrease of 4.91% from the previous month.

On the whole, due to the country's strict control over the real estate industry, steel consumption has experienced a cliff-like decline since the third quarter. With the rapid decline in steel prices, the profits of the long-term process are rapidly compressed until they fall near the cost of the steel plant, and even losses occur, resulting in extremely bearish raw material prices. Due to the decline in the full variety of spot products, the delivery grade of iron ore may be switched from the original SSF to JMBF, PB, or Newman. The brand premium of iron ore is the spread between the medium-to-high grade and the low grade, which is about 70-80 yuan/ton. As a result, JMBF is about to become the best delivery grade of iron ore, which further opens up the downside for iron ore.

Strategies:

Unilateral: go short when prices hit high levels

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. The state stimulates the economy.

2. Large-scale production cuts occurred in the mines.

3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: Supported by the supply side, rubber prices continue to be strong.

Last week, the price of rubber fluctuated and rose, and the expected relaxation of the domestic real estate market brought about a warming of the overall market atmosphere. The price of rubber continues to rise as its own supply is tight. At the same time, due to the rebound in downstream purchases, domestic port inventories continue to decline.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of November 19 was 179,523 tons (-127802), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 12810 tons (-125770). The RU11 contract expired, and the cancellation of the old rubber warehouse receipts resulted in a decline in the warehouse receipts and inventory. The current inventory is higher than the same period last year, but lower than the same period in 2019. As of November 14, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the decline increased month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in downstream purchases. In the future, we will focus on the turning point of accumulated inventory.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of November 18, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 65.48% (+1.48%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 61.26% (+1.26%). Due to the impact of previous power restrictions, the recent downstream production has accelerated. At the same time, the peak season for domestic downstream terminals is approaching, and tire plant operating rates continue to pick up.

Opinion: At present, the domestic Qingdao port inventory continues to decline, mainly due to the lack of rebound in arrivals and the rebound in downstream raw material purchases. With the end of this round of replenishment of inventory downstream, it is expected that the port outbound will fall. However, due to the impact of delayed shipping schedules and it is difficult to alleviate in the short term, the inflection point of inventory accumulation in domestic ports will continue to be postponed, which will provide strong support for rubber prices. At the same time, due to the impact of rain in Thailand's main production areas, the price of raw materials remained strong, and the rain continued to affect the peak season. The reduction in the number of rubber delivery days may affect the peak season output this year. No conclusion can be drawn at present, but the high price of raw materials may partly explain the tight supply situation. After the cancellation of the domestic old rubber warehouse receipts, the inventory has rebounded year-on-year but the absolute value is still at a low level. Pay attention to the position of the RU01 contract. Under the overall tight fundamentals pattern, rubber prices will continue to be strong.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks:

1. The domestic supply may increase significantly.

2. The impact of the epidemic and other factors may cause demand to continue to weaken.

3. Funds may be tight.

Crude oil: The three major institutions revised up non-OPEC supply growth.

Last week, the three major institutions issued a November report. This monthly report has a bearish impact on the market. Due to the epidemic, the demands of the three major institutions tend to be lowered. However, due to the expected increase in production in the United States, non-OPEC supply has been revised upwards, and the market supply and demand gap has narrowed. However, the current OPEC production increase is still below expectations, which is lower than the planned increase of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The overall supply and demand gap in the market has not changed much.

Demand: EIA predicts that the demand growth in 2021 will be 5.12 million barrels per day, which is an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day from the previous month, of which China’s demand will increase slightly. OPEC predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.65 million barrels per day, which is a downward revision of 150,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast, mainly due to the downward revision of US demand growth. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2021 is estimated to be 5.5 million barrels per day, which is revised down by 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s forecast, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic.

Non-OPEC supply: EIA expects that 2021 non-OPEC supply will increase by 810,000 barrels/day compared to the same period last year, which is an upward revision of 140,000 barrels/day from last month’s forecast. The US supply is revised upwards of 200,000 barrels/day from last month. EIA predicts that the total liquid supply in the United States will increase by 170,000 barrels per day in 2021, and it is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2022. OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to increase by 660,000 barrels per day in 2021, unchanged from last month's forecast. The IEA expects non-OPEC supply in 2021 to increase by 720,000 barrels per day year-on-year, which is an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast, mainly due to the upward revision of U.S. production.

OPEC production: According to EIA statistics, OPEC's production in October increased by 240,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 27.4 million barrels per day. The increase in production came from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. According to OPEC's statistics, OPEC's production in October increased by 220,000 barrels/day to 27.45 million barrels/day, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iraq. According to IEA statistics, OPEC production in October increased by 240,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 27.42 million barrels per day. OPEC's overall compliance rate was 124% higher than last month, and the increase in production was still not as good as expected.

Strategy: Neutrally bearish, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves or adopts other policies to curb oil prices.

Copper: Invoicing is controlled by the customs, and the frenzy of premiums may hardly be quelled.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of November 19th ran at RMB 70,325/ton and RMB 72,400/ton. The average premium and discount price of Standard-Grade Copper runs at RMB 2,075/ton, showing an upward trend in the middle of the week. Last week, copper prices tended to decline first and then rise. The Shanghai Copper 12 contract operated from a minimum of 68,670 yuan/ton to a maximum of 71,500 yuan/ton. It closed at 71,120 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly increase of 550 yuan/ton.

View:

On the macro front, expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the United States are heating up. The UK's October CPI hit the highest year-on-year growth rate in nearly a decade, and the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rose more than expected. Manufacturing surveys by the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserve Banks show that inflationary pressures continue to accumulate as demand continues to strengthen and further pressures the supply chain. In the middle of the week, many Fed officials gave a speech, and the U.S. index pulled up to put pressure on copper prices. On Friday, the Fed’s vice chairman and board members all voiced their support for taper, and the process is expected to accelerate. The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass Biden’s $2 trillion economic plan, making it the largest social expenditure bill in the U.S. It is currently awaiting passage by the Senate. Domestically, leaders of China and the United States held a video meeting on Sino-US relations and related issues this week, and exchanged views on Sino-US relations and issues of mutual concern. The capitals of the two countries believe that the meeting was frank, constructive, substantive, and fruitful. It is conducive to enhancing mutual understanding between the two parties, increasing the international community’s positive expectations of Sino-US relations, and sending a strong message to China, the United States and the world. Strong signal. The National Standing Committee was held. The meeting pointed out that on the basis of the establishment of carbon emission reduction financial support tools, another 200 billion yuan will be established to support the clean and efficient use of coal in a special re-lending to form a policy scale and promote green and low-carbon development.

On the whole, long and short are intertwined, and the domestic customs temporarily controlled the issuance of value-added tax invoices, which caused the spot premium to soar. If the contradiction between the input invoices cannot be alleviated, the frenzy of premiums may not be quelled. The current inventory turning point has not yet arrived, and the volatility of copper prices may remain.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Accumulate inventory turning point.

2. Monetary policy orientation.

3. Energy crisis risk.

PTA: The processing fee is once again compressed to a low level. Pay attention to the progress of TA factory inspection and maintenance in December.

Last Friday compared to this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4942 yuan/ton, which was -56 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA4872 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from last week. TA basis is -70 yuan/ton, which is +5 yuan/ton compared to last week. PTA processing fee is 47-yuan/ton, down -3 yuan/ton from last week. PX 913 US dollars / ton, down 9 US dollars / ton. The PX processing fee is US$155/ton, which is +12 US$/ton from last week.

In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX China operating rate was 69.3% (+0.5%), and PX Asia’s operating rate was 71.1% (+1.4%). The third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX began to increase the load. The total operating rate of Zhejiang Petrochemical rose to 75%. The 700,000 tons of Liaoyang Petrochemical was unexpectedly overhauled for 5 days on November 16, and Qingdao Lidong reduced the load to 65%. In terms of PX in Asia, Japan’s JX Kawasaki 350,000 tons, South Korea’s Lotte 500,000 tons, South Korea’s GS 400,000 tons recovered, and Japan’s Idemitsu’s 210,000 tons resumed for two weeks starting on November 13. The overall inventory accumulation rate of PX from November to December is not large. The PX processing fee in the early stage has been compressed on the left side and rebounded from the low this week.

In terms of PTA supply, CCF's PTA operating rate was 81.2% (+3.1%) this week, and the operating rate is still high. Shenghong's 1.5 million tons has not yet recovered. However, the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level of close to 400 yuan/ton during the week, triggering the expectation of the maintenance of 2.5 million tons of Hengli and 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dahua in December.

In terms of terminal supply and demand, 70% (+0%) of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were started, and there were still local power cuts in Xiaoshao, Nantong and other places in Jiangsu, Zhejiang; New terminal orders are still poor, and the willingness to speculate on filament replenishment is lacking. The pressure on filament inventory continues to increase this week. This week, POY inventory days are 21.6 days (+0.6), FDY inventory days are 29 days (+0.1), and DTY inventory days are 20.1 days (+1.5). The overall operating rate of polyester is 87.8% (+2.4%), and the operating rate of direct-spun filament is 83.3% (+4.8%).

Overall, the PX processing fee has hit a low level on the left, but the Asian PX accumulation is not under pressure, and the PX processing fee is expected to bottom out and rebound. Under the background of PTA maintenance and repairs, December will end the inventory accumulation cycle and enter a small destocking stage. The low PTA processing fee of 400 to 500 will have rebound demand, and the continuous compression space is limited. However, the increase in terminal load is still slow, and under the background of downstream negative feedback, the room for rebound in processing fees is also limited.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: In December, PTA failed to accumulate inventory continuously after the overhaul was fulfilled. For the 1-5 spread, the reverse arbitrage strategy has ended.

Risks: Potential overhauls of PTA factories under the background of low processing fees; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：成材消费崩塌，铁矿石或迎寒冬

上周，钢联公布了五大材的产销存情况，数据显示：五大材总体消费947万吨，周度环比增加2万吨，其中螺纹消费减少3万吨，热卷消费减少4万吨，当下属于绝对旺季，该组数据的表现大幅低于市场预期，随着北方气温转寒，钢材消费有望持续下滑。同时，铁矿石自2205合约开始，交易所前期调整了交割规则（详看华泰黑色建材组黑色专题《X因素铁矿石交割制度修改对铁矿合约价值影响》），同时由于中低品价差回落，导致铁矿石交割品的轮换，铁矿石下方空间或将打开。截止上周五收盘，铁矿01合约报收536点，周环比下跌11点。现货方面，日青京曹四港PB最低价572元/吨，周度环比跌33元/吨，超特粉372元/吨，周度环比跌8元/吨。基差方面，期现齐跌。

供应方面，本期Mysteel新口径全球发运总量2714万吨，周度环比减少348万吨，其中澳洲发运量环比减少270万吨至1547万吨，基本持稳；巴西发运量环比减少23万吨至609万吨；非主流发运558万吨，周度环比减少55万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率70.34%，环比上周下降1.24%，同比去年下降16.11%；高炉炼铁产能利用率75.35%，环比下降0.38%，同比下降16.29%；钢厂盈利率42.86%（5年最低），环比下降6.93%，同比下降49.78%；日均铁水产量201.98万吨，环比下降1.02万吨，同比下降41.95万吨。163家钢厂高炉开工率48.62%，环比下降0.55%，产能利用率58.69%，环比增加0.10%，剔除淘汰产能的利用率为63.89%，较去年同期下降20.39%，钢厂盈利率39.26%，环比下降4.91%。

整体来看，由于国家对地产行业的严厉管控，导致三季度以来，钢材消费出现断崖式下跌。随着钢价的快速下跌，长流程利润快速压缩，直至钢厂成本附近，甚至部分钢厂已出现亏损，开工率、产能利用率同环比大幅下降，创近五年新低，钢厂采购意愿不足，港口库存持续累积，极大的利空原料价格。由于铁矿石现货的全品种下跌，中低品价差进一步回落，叠加前期交割规则的修改，使得铁矿的交割品级，或将由原来的超特切换为金布巴、PB、麦克或纽曼，铁矿石的品牌溢价就是中高品和低品的价差，大概在70—80元/吨，由此金布巴即将有望成为铁矿石最佳交割品级，为此铁矿石有望进一步打开了下跌空间。

策略：

单边：逢高做空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

国家对经济或房地产政策放松或刺激，矿山出现大范围减产，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：供应端支撑，胶价延续强势

上周胶价震荡上扬，国内房地产市场的预期放松带来整体市场氛围的转暖，橡胶在自身供应偏紧下，价格继续抬升，同时因下游采买的回升，带来国内港口库存延续下降趋势。

国内交易所总库存截止11月19为179523吨（-127802），期货仓单量12810吨（-125770），RU11月合约到期，老胶仓单注销带来仓单及库存的下降，目前库存高于去年同期，但低于2019年同期。截至11月14日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，降幅环比增加，主要因下游拿货增加。后期关注累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止11月18日，全钢胎企业开工率65.48%（+1.48%），半钢胎企业开工率61.26%（+1.26%）。前期限电影响，带来近期下游生产加快进度，同时，国内下游终端旺季临近，轮胎厂开工率延续回升。

观点：目前国内青岛港口库存延续下降，主要因到港量没有回升叠加下游原料采买的回升。随着下游这轮补库结束之后，预计港口出库将有所回落，但因船期推迟影响还在且短期难以缓解，国内港口库存累库拐点将继续延后，对于橡胶价格支撑较强。同时，泰国主产区因雨水影响，原料价格维持坚挺，旺季雨水持续影响，割胶天数的减少或将使得今年的旺季产量有所影响，目前尚不能下结论，但原料价格高企或部分说明供应偏紧的局面。国内云南主产区临近停割，下周开始冷空气来袭是否带来提前停割的可能，都使得国内原料价格下行有限。国内老胶仓单注销后，同比回升但绝对值仍处于偏低水平，关注RU01合约的持仓情况，总体基本面偏紧格局下，胶价将延续强势。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：三大机构上修非欧佩克供应增长

上周三大机构发布了11月报，本次月报影响略偏空，由于疫情原因，三大机构的需求倾向于下调，而由于美国增产预期增加，非OPEC供应出现上修，市场供需缺口有所收窄，不过目前欧佩克增产仍旧持续不及预期，低于每月40万桶/日的计划增产量，市场整体的供需缺口没有发生太大变化。

需求：EIA预计对2021年需求增长预估为512万桶/日，较上月上修6万桶/日，其中中国需求小幅上修。OPEC预计2021年需求增长预估为565万桶/日，较上月预测下修15万桶/日，主要是下修了美国需求增长。IEA预计2021年需求增长预估为550万桶/日，较上月预测下修3万桶/日，主要来自疫情影响。

非OPEC供应：EIA预计2021非OPEC供应同比增加81万桶/日，较上月预测上修14万桶/日，美国供应较上月上修20万桶/日。EIA预计2021年美国液体总供应同比增加17万桶/日，预计2022年同比增加140万桶/日。OPEC预计2021非OPEC供应增加66万桶/日，较上月预测不变。IEA对2021年非OPEC供应预计同比增加72万桶/日，较上月预测上修10万桶/日，主要是美国产量上修。

OPEC产量：EIA口径10月OPEC产量环比增加24万桶/日至2740万桶/日，增产来自沙特、伊拉克。OPEC口径10月OPEC产量环比增加22万桶/日至2745万桶/日，主要增产来自沙特，委内和伊拉克。IEA口径10月OPEC产量环比增加24万桶/日至2742万桶/日，OPEC整体合规率为124%较上月增加，增产幅度仍旧不及预期。

策略：中性偏空，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备或采取其他抑制油价政策

铜：海关控开发票，升水疯狂状态恐难平息

现货情况：

据SMM讯，11月19日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于70,325元/吨72,400元/吨，周度呈先抑后扬走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于平水至升水2,075元/吨，周中呈上升走势。上周铜价呈先抑后扬走势，沪铜12合约运行于最低68,670元吨至最高71,500元/吨，周五夜盘收71,120元/吨，周度涨550元/吨。

观点：

宏观方面，英美央行加息预期升温，英国10月CPI创近十年最高同比增速，美国纽约联储制造业指数超预期上升，费城及纽约联储的制造业调查显示，在需求持续走强并进一步令供应链承压的情况下，通胀压力继续积聚。周中多位美联储官员讲话放鹰，美指拉涨给与铜价压力。周五美联储副主席及理事均发声支持taper，进程预期可能加快。美国众议院投票表决通过拜登的2万亿美元经济计划，成为美国规模最大的社会支出法案，目前等待参议院通过。国内方面，本周中美领导人就中美关系和相关问题进行视频会晤，就中美关系和双方共同关心的问题交换意见。两国元首都认为，此次会晤是坦率、建设性、实质性和富有成效的，有利于增进双方相互了解，增加国际社会对中美关系的正面预期，向中美两国和世界发出了强有力信号。国常会召开，会议指出在前期设立碳减排金融支持工具基础上，再设立2000亿元支持煤炭清洁高效利用专项再贷款，形成政策规模，推动绿色低碳发展。

整体来看多空交织，国内海关暂时控开增值税发票令现货升水疯狂飙涨，若进项发票的矛盾不能缓解，升水疯狂状态恐难平息，目前库存拐点仍未到来，铜价震荡态势或将维持。

策略：

1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：

1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：加工费再度压缩至低位，关注12月TA工厂检修兑现进度

上周五较本周五变化，TA2201收于4942元/吨，较前一周-56元/吨。现货方面，PTA4872元/吨，较上周-51元/吨，TA基差-70元/吨，较上周+5元/吨，PTA加工费47-元/吨，较上周-3元/吨；PX913美元/吨，较上周-9美元/吨，PX加工费155美元/吨，较上周+12美元/吨。

PX供应方面，本周CCF的PX中国开工率69.3%（+0.5%），PX亚洲开工率71.1%（+1.4%）。浙石化PX第三条线开始提负，浙石化总开工率上升至75%，福海创80万吨停车至年底，辽阳石化70万吨11.16意外检修5天，青岛丽东低负荷至65%。亚洲PX方面，日本JX川崎35万吨、韩国乐天50万吨、韩国GS40万吨恢复，日本出光21万吨11.13停2周。总体PX11-12月累库速率不大，前期PX加工费已左侧压缩到位。本周低位反弹。

PTA供应方面，本周CCF的PTA开工率81.2%（+3.1%）开工仍处于偏高位置。盛虹150万吨仍未恢复。但PTA加工费周内压缩至接近400元/吨低位，引发12月份恒力250万吨以及逸盛大化225万吨等装置检修预期，关注兑现程度。

终端供需方面，江浙织机开工70%（+0%），加弹82%（+8%），江浙萧绍、南通等地仍有局部限电；终端新订单仍差，对长丝投机补库意愿缺失。本周长丝库存压力继续增加，本周POY库存天数21.6天（+0.6）、FDY库存天数29天（+0.1）、DTY库存天数20.1天（+1.5）。聚酯整体开工率87.8%（+2.4%），直纺长丝开工率83.3%（+4.8%）。

涤短工厂开工率83.4%（-1.2%），涤短工厂权益库存天数6天（-2.7），库存快速回落。瓶片工厂开工率77.3%（+0.6%），瓶片工厂库存天数仍偏低在8天偏上。

总体来看，PX加工费左侧已打至低位，但亚洲PX累库压力不大，PX加工费有望探底反弹。PTA检修全兑现背景下，12月将结束累库周期而进入小幅去库阶段，PTA加工费400至500的低位有反弹需求，持续压缩空间有限。但终端提负仍慢，下游负反馈背景下，加工费反弹空间亦有限。

策略：

单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。

跨期套利：12月PTA检修兑现后未能持续累库，1-5价差反套策略结束。

关注及风险点：

低加工费背景下PTA工厂检修兑现进度，浙石化PX提负进展，聚酯提负空间