Iron Ore: The continued accumulation of inventories and the limited production of steel mills have made it difficult to change the medium-term pressure on iron ore.

Steel consumption rebounded slightly last week, but the profit of steel mills was compressed, and iron ore demand did not improve significantly. Although futures and spot prices rebounded following the price of thread and hot-rolled coil, the weak situation under high inventory pressure has not changed. As of Friday’s close, the Iron Ore 01 contract closed at 546.5 points, down 14 points from a week-on-week basis. It once touched 518.5 points and set a new contract price low. In terms of spot, the lowest price of the four main ports was 605 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous week, and 380 yuan/ton for SSF, which was the same as last week. In terms of basis, both futures and spot prices fell. The Platts 62% U.S. dollar index was 89 U.S. dollars, down 4 U.S. dollars on a weekly basis.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel's statistics, the total global shipment volume was 30.624 million tons, an increase of 334,000 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the volume of shipments from Australia decreased by 109,000 tons to 18.175 million tons, which was basically stable; the volume of shipments in Brazil increased by 640 thousand tons to 6.319 million tons. Non-mainstream shipments amounted to 6.13 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 197,000 tons.

In terms of demand, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 71.59%, an increase of 0.69% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 14.74%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 75.72%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.39%; the profit rate of steel mills was 49.78%, a month-on-month decrease of 22.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.86%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.0299 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,900 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 421,900 tons.

On the whole, the global iron ore shipments on the supply side continued to pick up, mainly due to the large increase in shipments from Brazil, while the shipments of Australian and non-mainstream iron ore decreased slightly, and the total supply growth rate narrowed. On the demand side, due to the compression of steel profits, the enthusiasm for production has declined, and the average daily molten iron volume has reached a new low. In addition, Tangshan issued a notice on the 13th that stricter control measures will be taken to deal with the recent pollution process. Shanxi Jincheng also launched an orange warning for heavy pollution, and some steel mills may be affected. On the whole, iron ore port inventory has accumulated for seven consecutive weeks, and high supply pressure is difficult to change in the short term. The profit reduction of steel mills combined with the resurgence of production restrictions in some regions makes it difficult for the demand side to change significantly. Although iron ore prices rebounded slightly last week following the rise in thread and hot-rolled coil, the situation of iron ore under pressure in the medium-term operation is difficult to change as the gap between supply and demand continues to expand.

Strategies:

Unilateral: tend to be bearish in the medium term

Arbitrage: None

Spot-Futures Arbitrage: None

Options: None

Inter-period: None

Cross-species: None

Concerns and risks:

1. Favorable macro policy.

2. The implementation strength and scope of the crude steel production restriction policy.

3. Risk of rising sea freight, etc.

Rubber: The downstream purchases increase, and the price of rubber fluctuates strongly.

Last week, rubber futures prices stopped falling and rebounded, mainly driven by the warming of the market atmosphere, the black series stopped falling, and the news about the loosening of the domestic real estate market in the second half of the week boosted the commodity market atmosphere. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, after the pressure on downstream tire factories has eased due to the transfer of finished product inventory, they have increased the purchase of raw materials to support spot prices.

The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of November 12 was 307,325 tons (+9869), and the amount of futures warehouse receipts was 253,940 tons (+11690). The domestic peak season led to a continued recovery in output, and warehouse receipts continued to increase last week. As Yunnan approaches the stop of delivery, the increase in warehouse receipts will slow down in the later period. As of November 7, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, and the decline increased month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in downstream procurement. In the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of accumulated inventory.

In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of November 11, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 64% (+3%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 60% (+3.52%). The approaching peak season for downstream terminals and concerns about the impact of future power curtailment policies have led to a continuous recovery in operating rates in the near term, and downstream raw material purchases have also increased.

Opinion: Due to the continued delay of rubber shipping schedules, the domestic Qingdao port has not yet seen the situation of concentrated arrivals. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic in the near future, the entry of index rubber has also been affected to a certain extent, and the domestic supply pressure is still not large. After downstream tire factories have recently transferred their finished product inventory to distributors, inventory pressure has eased, and the recovery in operating rates has also increased their willingness to purchase raw materials. Supply and demand showed signs of slight improvement, supporting rubber prices. At the same time, the main production area in Yunnan is approaching to stop delivery, and the overall output increase is limited, resulting in limited downward space for raw material prices and limited increase in delivery products. The low domestic inventory may be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected that rubber prices are expected to maintain strong volatility. It is recommended to maintain a long strategy.

Strategy: Cautiously bullish

Risks: production may increase substantially, inventory may continue to accumulate, and demand may decrease substantially, etc.

Crude oil: The decision of the US to release SPR is pending, and oil prices remain high and fluctuating.

The United States has not yet made a decision on SPR last week. The EIA monthly report on Tuesday showed that the oil market will enter an oversupply next year, and there are still differences within the Biden administration on whether to release strategic reserves. For the United States, what is the current ideal oil price? From the perspective of inflation, gasoline prices have a greater impact on U.S. inflation. According to statistics from the AAA Association, the current average gasoline price in the United States is $3.5 per gallon, the highest in the past five years. Generally, gasoline prices above US$3 per gallon have a very large impact on inflation. If the US government's goal is to keep gasoline prices below US$3/gallon, the corresponding crude oil prices need to be adjusted back to below US$70/barrel. This is when considering the completely linear changes in the prices of gasoline and crude oil, but this is not entirely the case. Since the beginning of this year, US refined oil prices have outperformed crude oil. The main driving force is the strong recovery on the consumer side and the slow recovery of refinery operations this year, making the inventory of refined oil products, including gasoline, at the lowest level in 5-year history. Since the released strategic reserves are crude oil inventories rather than gasoline inventories, from the perspective of the Biden administration, on the one hand, it hopes to lower the price of crude oil, thereby lowering the cost of gasoline production, and on the other hand, it hopes to boost the operating rate of refineries by lowering the price of crude oil. However, in terms of the realization path, the first one is more straightforward, but the second path to increase the operating rate of the refinery still has greater uncertainty. Although releasing of reserves may bring about short-term refinery profits, if companies expect this to be a short-term market dividend, they are not willing to increase the operating rate. That is, releasing reserves will not greatly improve the fundamentals of tight US refined oil products. This means that the effect of releasing reserves will be unsatisfactory, so the Biden government is currently considering other policy tools, such as restricting the export of crude oil and refined oil and relaxing the renewable energy policy to stimulate refinery production. But for now, due to differences within the government, the prospects for the introduction of these policies are doubtful. The biggest problem in the United States is still that the supply of refined oil cannot keep up with consumption. If we only consider releasing reserves from the crude oil side, we believe that this will not significantly improve the fundamentals of refined oil products.

Strategy: Neutral, go long of diesel crack spread (Gasoil-Brent）

Risk: The United States releases strategic reserves.

Copper: Market divergence has intensified, and copper prices may remain volatile.

Spot situation:

According to SMM, the average price of SMM 1# Copper Cathode in the week of November 12th ran at RMB 70,600/ton and RMB 71,450/ton, showing a weekly fluctuation trend. The average premium and discount quotation of Standard-Grade Copper runs from a discount of 5 yuan/ton to a premium of 225 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend in the middle of the week. Last week, the price of copper fluctuated upward. The Shanghai Copper 12 contract ran from a minimum of 69,340 yuan to a maximum of 71,260 yuan/ton. It closed at 71,160 yuan/ton on Friday night, a weekly increase of 1,760 yuan/ton.

View:

On the macro level, Russia has already begun to supply gas to Europe, but the political game among Eastern European countries is a disturbing factor. On the 11th, the President of Belarus said that he might consider closing a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe. The United States and OPEC are deadlocked on the issue of increasing oil production, after OPEC announced that it would maintain production. The White House has stated that it will not announce plans to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), but according to people familiar with the matter, the crude oil export ban and the refined oil export ban are one of the remedies the White House has prepared. Therefore, the prices of natural gas and crude oil may continue to fluctuate repeatedly, and how the cold weather should be interpreted will play the role of catalyst. In terms of inflation and interest rate hike expectations, with the implementation of the Fed’s Taper, the market is concerned about the trend of interest rate hikes over the past 22 years and needs to continue to pay attention to later inflation data and FOMC meetings. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which is often used as a leading indicator of inflation, has now fallen to its low level in June this year. However, the supply chain, as a key factor of inflation, is still uncertain when it will return to normal. At present, gold and the U.S. dollar have risen together, reflecting the market's divergence on whether inflation is temporary and whether the Fed will adopt unexpected tightening measures such as raising interest rates earlier. On the domestic front, PPI and CPI both rose. From a structural point of view, apart from the impetus of rising vegetable prices, the transmission of PPI to CPI is still going on. The Central Bank Party Committee held a meeting and pointed out that it is better to support the recovery of consumption and investment and curb excessive price increases. Recently, real estate loans from financial institutions have accelerated significantly, the market has released the risk sentiment of the mainland real estate, and the risk appetite has rebounded.

Overall, long and short are intertwined. The current market divergence has deepened, crude oil and natural gas prices have fluctuated repeatedly, and the simultaneous rise of gold and the US dollar reflects the market’s conflicts with regard to inflation. From a fundamental point of view, the operating rate picked up after the domestic power curtailment was relieved, the LME continued to de-stock, and the social database reached a new low. The inventory turning point has not yet arrived, and the volatility of copper prices may remain.

Strategies:

1. Unilateral: neutral

2. Inter-market: postpone

3. Inter-period: postpone

4. Options: postpone

Focus point:

1. Accumulated inventory turning point

2. Monetary policy orientation

3. Energy crisis risk.

PTA: The terminal load is still low, and the downstream negative feedback.

Last Friday compared with this Friday, TA2201 closed at 4998 yuan/ton, +30 yuan/ton from the previous week. In terms of spot, PTA4923 yuan/ton, compared with last week +40 yuan/ton, TA basis is -75 yuan/ton, compared with last week +10 yuan/ton, PTA processing fee is 473 yuan/ton, compared with last week -27 yuan/ Tons; PX is US$922/ton, which is +15 US dollars/ton from last week, and the PX processing fee is US$145/ton, which is +4 US dollars/ton compared to last week.

In terms of PX supply, this week’s CCF’s PX Asia operating rate was 68.8% (-5.3%), and PX China’s operating rate was 69.7% (-2%). The supply of subspecies PX has fallen, and the third production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s PX has not been significantly increased the load. The Asian PX accumulation rate from November to December is not large, and the low level of PX processing fee near US$140/ton has basically been compressed.

In terms of PTA supply, CCF’s PTA operating rate of 78.1% (-3.3%) this week is still on the high side. Hengli 3# 2.2 million tons of 11.5 to 11.25 overhauled, Shenghong 1.5 million tons of 11.11 restarted. There are still not many periodic overhauls. Under the background of the inventory accumulation of expectations, the PTA processing fee has been reduced to less than 500 yuan/ton.

In terms of terminal supply and demand, 70% (-12%) of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were started, 74% (-5%) of texturing. The dual-control policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang still exists, and terminal load is under pressure; terminal orders are not performing well, and filaments are restocked. Weak willingness. This week, the pressure on filament inventory continues to increase. This week, POY inventory days are 21 days (+1.4), FDY inventory days are 28.9 days (+1.6), and DTY inventory days are 18.6 days (+3.3). The overall operating rate of polyester is 85.4% (+0.8%), and the operating rate of direct spinning filament is 78.5% (+0%).

Overall, the PX processing fee has been hit to a low level on the left, but the Asian PX storage pressure is not great, and the PX processing fee has limited room for further compression. PTA continues to accumulate inventory expectations from November to December, and the expected reduction of PTA processing fees, combined with the negative feedback of further decline in terminal construction this week, further reduces PTA processing fees to below 500, but it is expected that there is limited room for further compression.

Strategic recommendations:

(1) Unilateral: PTA and PX processing fees are basically compressed in place, and the correction of crude oil benchmarks is expected to be limited. It is recommended that on unilateral prices, taking a wait-and-see attitude.

(2) Intertemporal: For the 1-5 spread, adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy.

Risks: PTA factory's control over the maintenance rhythm; the load situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical PX; the maintenance time of polyester reduced load.

铁矿石：持续累库叠加钢厂限产，铁矿中期承压局面难改

上周钢材消费略有反弹，但钢厂利润压缩，铁矿需求未见明显好转，期现价格虽一度跟随成材反弹，但高库存压力下弱势局面未改。截止周五收盘，铁矿01合约报收546.5点，周环比下跌14点，盘中一度触及518.5点创出合约价格新低。现货方面，日青京曹四港最低价605元/吨，周度环比跌68元/吨，超特粉380元/吨，较上周持平。普氏62%美金指数89美金，周度环比跌4美金。

供应方面，本期Mysteel新口径全球发运总量3062.4万吨，周度环比增加33.4万吨，其中澳洲发运量环比减少10.9万吨至1817.5万吨，基本持稳；巴西发运量环比增加64.0万吨至631.9万吨；非主流发运613万吨，周度环比减少19.7万吨。

需求方面，Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率71.59%，环比上周增加0.69%，同比去年下降14.74%；高炉炼铁产能利用率75.72%，环比下降0.71%，同比下降16.39%；钢厂盈利率49.78%，环比下降22.08%，同比下降42.86%；日均铁水产量202.99万吨，环比下降1.89万吨，同比下降42.19万吨。

整体来看，供应端全球铁矿发运延续回升态势，主要是巴西发运增幅较大，澳洲和非主流铁矿发运略有减少，供给总量增幅收窄。需求端因钢材利润压缩，生产积极性下降，日均铁水量再创新低，疏港受北方天气影响也出现回落。另外，13日唐山发布通知，将采取加严管控措施，以应对近期的污染过程，山西晋城也启动重污染天气橙色预警，部分钢厂生产或将受到影响。综合来看，铁矿石港口库存连续七周累库，高供给压力短期难改，钢厂利润压缩叠加部分地区限产再起，需求端较难有明显改观，虽然上周铁矿石价格跟随成材上涨而小幅反弹，但供需差持续扩大的格局下，铁矿石中期承压运行的局面难改。

策略：

单边：中期看空

套利：无

期现：无

期权：无

跨品种：无

关注及风险点：

宏观政策利好，粗钢压产政策的落地力度和幅度，海运费上涨风险等。

橡胶：下游拿货增加，胶价偏强震荡

上周橡胶期价止跌反弹，主要在市场氛围转暖的带动下，黑色系不再下跌同时下半周关于国内房地产市场松绑的消息使得商品氛围提振。自身基本面来看，下游轮胎厂因成品库存的转移，压力有所缓解之后，加大了原料的采购，支撑现货价格。

国内交易所总库存截止11月12日为307325吨（+9869），期货仓单量253940吨（+11690），国内旺季导致产量继续回升，上周仓单继续增加，随着云南临近停割，后期仓单增幅将放缓。截至11月7日，青岛保税区库存延续下降，降幅环比增加，主要因下游拿货增加。后期关注累库拐点。

下游轮胎开工率方面，截止11月11日，全钢胎企业开工率64%（+3%），半钢胎企业开工率60%（+3.52%）。下游终端旺季临近以及担忧后期限电政策影响，带来近期开工率持续回升，下游原料采购也有所增加。

观点：因橡胶船期的继续推迟带来国内青岛港口尚未看到集中到港的情况。同时近期因疫情的影响，指标胶的进入也受到一定影响，国内供应压力仍不大。下游轮胎厂因近期成品库存转移到经销商后，库存压力有所缓解，开工率的回升也增加了其原料采购意愿。供需呈现小幅改善迹象，支撑橡胶价格。同时国内云南主产区临近停割，总体产量增加有限，带来原料价格下行空间受限以及交割品增加幅度有限。国内低库存短期或难以缓解下，预计胶价有望维持偏强震荡，上方压力位主要在烟片进口窗口一线，建议保持多头思路。

策略：谨慎偏多

风险点：国内供应大幅增加，疫情等影响需求继续示弱，资金紧张。

原油：美国抛储悬而未决，油价维持高位震荡

上周美国仍未就抛储做出决定，周二EIA月报显示明年油市将进入供过于求，而目前拜登政府内部关于抛储与否仍存分歧，暂且就抛储与否不谈，对于美国而言，当前理想的油价在何种水平？从通胀的角度考虑，汽油价格对美国的通胀影响较大，根据AAA协会统计，当前全美平均汽油价格在3.5美元/加仑，为近5年来最高，通常汽油价格超过3美元/加仑对通胀的影响就非常大，如果美国政府目标是想将汽油价格压制在3美元/加仑以下，那么对应原油价格需要回调至70美元/桶以下，这是考虑汽油与原油价格完全线性变动的情况下，但事实并非完全如此，今年以来，美国成品油价格表现强于原油，主要的驱动来自消费端的强劲复苏，以及今年炼厂开工恢复缓慢，包括汽油在内的成品油库存处于5年历史最低水平。由于释放的战略储备是原油库存而非汽油库存，因此从拜登政府的角度而言，一方面是希望压低原油价格，从而压低汽油生产成本，另一方面是希望通过压低原油价格提振炼厂开工率，但从实现路径来说，第一种较为直接，但第二种路径提升炼厂开工率仍有较大不确定性，虽然抛储可能带来短期炼厂利润提升，但如果企业预期这属于短期市场红利，对于提升开工率的意愿并不高，即抛储并不会对美国成品油偏紧的基本面产生太大的改善作用，这就意味着抛储效果会不尽人意，所以目前拜登政府也在考虑其他政策工具，如限制原油成品油出口以及放松可再生能源政策，从而刺激炼厂生产，但就目前而言，由于政府内部的分歧，这些政策是否出台前景存疑，美国最大的问题仍在于成品油供给跟不上消费，如果仅从原油端考虑来进行抛储，我们认为治标不治本，对成品油基本面的改善不会非常显著。

策略：中性，做多柴油裂解价差（Gasoil-Brent）

风险：美国释放战略储备

铜：市场分歧加深，铜价震荡或将维持

现货情况：

据SMM讯，11月12日当周SMM1#电解铜平均价运行于70,600元/吨71,450元/吨，周度呈震荡走势。平水铜平均升贴水报价运行于贴水5元/吨至升水225元/吨，周中呈上升走势。上周铜价呈震荡上行走势，沪铜12合约运行于最低69,340元吨至最高71,260元/吨，周五夜盘收71,160元/吨，周度涨1,760元/吨。

观点：

宏观方面，目前俄罗斯已经开始向欧洲供气，但是东欧各国的政治博弈是干扰因素，11日白俄罗斯总统表示可能会考虑关闭俄罗斯至欧洲的一条天然气管道。美国与欧佩克关于石油增产问题僵持不下，此前欧佩克宣布维持产量。目前白宫表示不会宣布释放战略石油储备（SPR）的计划，但是据知情人士透露，原油出口禁令以及成品油出口禁令是白宫准备的补救措施之一。因此天然气与原油价格可能将持续反复震荡，而寒冷天气到底该如何演绎将扮演催化剂的角色。通胀及加息预期方面，随着美联储Taper的落地，市场关注22年的加息走向，需持续关注后期的通胀数据及FOMC会议。而常作为通胀领先指标的波罗的海干散货指数（BDI）目前已回落至今年6月低位，但供应链作为通胀的一个关键性因素，恢复至正常的时间目前仍不确定。目前黄金与美元齐涨，体现出市场对于通胀是否是暂时的以及美联储是否会采取提前加息等超预期紧缩措施出现分歧。国内方面，PPI与CPI齐涨，从结构上看除了菜价冲高的推动外，PPI往CPI的传导仍在进行。央行党委召开会议指出，更好支持消费投资恢复，抑制价格过快上涨。近期金融机构房地产贷款投放明显提速，市场对内地房地产风险情绪有所释放，风险偏好有所回升。

整体来看多空交织，目前市场分歧加深，原油与天然气价格反复震荡，黄金与美元的齐涨体现市场对于通胀的矛盾冲突。基本面来看，国内限电缓解后开工率回暖，LME持续去库，社库再创新低，库存拐点仍未到来，铜价震荡态势或将维持。

策略：1. 单边：中性 2. 跨市：暂缓 3. 跨期：暂缓；4. 期权：暂缓

关注点：1. 累库拐点 货币政策导向 能源危机风险

PTA：终端负荷仍低，下游负反馈

上周五较本周五变化，TA2201收于4998元/吨，较前一周+30元/吨。现货方面，PTA4923元/吨，较上周+40元/吨，TA基差-75元/吨，较上周+10元/吨，PTA加工费473元/吨，较上周-27元/吨；PX922美元/吨，较上周+15美元/吨，PX加工费145美元/吨，较上周+4美元/吨。

PX供应方面，本周CCF的PX亚洲开工率68.8%（-5.3%），PX中国开工率69.7%（-2%）。亚种PX供应回落，浙石化PX第三条线仍未明显提负，福海创80万吨停车至年底，福建联合85万吨11.10停车2个月，印度OMPL兑现检修。亚洲PX11-12月累库速率不大， PX加工费140美元/吨附近低位基本已压缩到位。

PTA供应方面，本周CCF的PTA开工率78.1%（-3.3%）开工仍处于偏高位置。恒力3#220万吨11.5至11.25检修，盛虹150万吨11.11重启。阶段性检修仍不多，累库预期背景下，PTA加工费压缩至500元/吨以下，基本压缩到位。

终端供需方面，江浙织机开工70%（-12%），加弹74%（-5%），江浙地区双控政策仍存，终端负荷受压；终端订单表现不佳，对长丝再库存意愿弱。本周长丝库存压力继续增加，本周POY库存天数21天（+1.4）、FDY库存天数28.9天（+1.6）、DTY库存天数18.6天（+3.3）。聚酯整体开工率85.4%（+0.8%），直纺长丝开工率78.5%（+0%）。

总体来看，PX加工费左侧已打至低位，但亚洲PX累库压力不大，PX加工费再压缩空间有限。PTA11-12月持续累库预期，PTA加工费压缩预期，叠加本周终端开工进一步下降的负反馈，PTA加工费进一步压缩至500以下，但预计再压缩空间有限。

策略：

单边：PTA及PX加工费基本压缩到位，原油基准预期回调有限，单边价格观望。

跨期套利：累库预期背景下，1-5价差反套。

关注及风险点：

低加工费背景下PTA工厂的潜在检修可能，浙石化PX提负进展，聚酯低负荷的持续时长