In the global commodity market, whoever has the right to speak in pricing will have the initiative in the market.
On November 19, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange, solemnly launched the international copper futures contract. The Chinese market’s pricing function on the global copper supply chain will further increase, China's impact on the price of important commodities is rising again.
On the basis of keeping the existing Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Copper Futures Contracts (for China) unchanged, Shanghai International Energy Exchange has listed international copper futures, China's crude oil futures trading mode of "international platform, net price trading, bonded delivery and RMB valuation" is adopted to fully introduce overseas traders.
"This move will enable foreign investors to trade in the world's largest copper consumer. The world's largest importer and consumer of industrial metals has once again demonstrated its dominant position in the market." Reuters commented. The British "Financial Times" commented that Shanghai is challenging London's dominant position in metal trading, and international copper contracts may become a global pricing benchmark.
For a long time, China's futures market has a vision: to form a "Chinese price" with the right to speak in pricing in the international commodity market. The birth of international copper futures means that the "Chinese price" in which the world participates in the global copper industry chain is gradually approaching.
The gorgeous evolution of copper futures
Not long ago, President Xi Jinping stated at the 30th Anniversary Celebration of Pudong Development and Opening-up to "enhance the price influence of important commodities, better serve and lead the development of the real economy." The development of copper futures is a typical interpretation.
Copper is an important industrial metal and a macroeconomic barometer. China is the world's largest producer, consumer and importer of refined copper. In 2019, China's refined copper production was 9.784 million tons, accounting for 41.24% of the world's total, and consumption of 12.08 million tons, accounting for 50.72% of the world's total, and net imports of 3.234 million tons, ranking first in the world. Copper has a high degree of marketization and internationalization, domestic and overseas spot markets are developed, there are many upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, and there is a strong demand for risk management.
As early as 1993, Shanghai Metal Exchange, the predecessor of Shanghai Futures Exchange, launched China’s first domestic copper futures contract. After years of development, copper futures have changed the pricing model of the spot market and also provided effective tools for companies to hedge price risks. "Shanghai copper futures prices have become the pricing benchmark for the domestic copper spot industry." Fushan Shang, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told the Economic Daily reporter. The industry has a long history of participating in the futures market and has a good foundation. Copper futures was once a banner of China's futures market and was called the "copper boss" by the futures market.
Strength determines the right to speak. From a global perspective, the international pricing power of copper has a drift arc.
Before the 1990s, the world's major pricing centers for non-ferrous metals were London (London Metal Exchange, or LME) and New York (New York Mercantile Exchange, or COMEX). After the 1990s, with the establishment and development of China's futures market and the rise of the real economy, Shanghai (Shanghai Futures Exchange, abbreviated as SHFE) has gradually strengthened its voice in pricing in the global non-ferrous metal market. As China has become the world's largest copper producer and consumer, the international nonferrous metal market has gradually formed a three-pronged pattern that is London, New York, and Shanghai.
A witness, Zewen Zhu, deputy general manager of an investment company told reporters that initially Shanghai Futures Exchange only traded copper and aluminum in nonferrous metals. At that time, Shanghai nonferrous futures market was almost London's "shadow market." "After the London Metal Exchange closed, Shanghai price fluctuated around the London closing price throughout the day, with very small fluctuations and very small trading volume." Zewen Zhu stated.
With China's accession to the WTO, China's nonferrous metal production, consumption, and import volume continue to explode. Shanghai Stock Exchange has achieved tremendous development due to its standardization and ability to serve the real economy. The "Shanghai price" in turn began to have a huge impact on the London Metal Exchange's futures prices. "Many foreign traders have to get up to work early in the morning to get a favorable trading position." Zewen Zhu said.
The opportunity of international copper
The influence of Shanghai copper futures is increasing day by day. Why do we need to launch international copper futures again?
Yan Jiang, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Shanghai Futures Exchange, told the Economic Daily reporter that there are two copper spot markets in China, including domestic taxes and domestic and foreign bonded copper markets. Simply put, the spot "pool" is different. The tax-included market reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic market; the bonded market reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the international market in the Eastern time zone.
Therefore, Shanghai copper futures face the domestic market, and their prices are the pricing benchmark for domestic spot trade. The launch of international copper futures, whose prices more directly reflect the supply and demand of the global spot market, especially the international market in the Eastern time zone, can better serve the international risk management needs of enterprises and enhance China's competitiveness as a global copper pricing center.
At present, the number of copper stocks in China's bonded areas exceeds the total number of domestic duty-paid copper stocks and the total of London Metal Exchange (LME) global warehouse stocks. However, the price of Shanghai copper futures cannot be priced for foreign trade. In international trade, Chinese companies use dollar-priced contracts, that is, the dollar price of the London Metal Exchange LME.
Although Chinese buyers have the largest purchase volume in a single country in the world, and although Chinese traders' arbitrage transactions between Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures are an important source of LME copper trading volume, However, the closed market cannot bring the real strong market and achieve the right of pricing discourse. Therefore, the international copper futures emerged.
The "pool" of international copper is connected to the "sea" of the international market. Honglin Ge, party secretary of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that the launch of international copper futures provides a new risk management tool for the global copper industry chain, and provides a transparent and fair international market price denominated in RMB.
Paul White, Secretary-General of the International Copper Research Group, said that the Far East market, represented by China, will continue to contribute major growth in copper production, consumption and trade in the future. Shanghai International Copper Futures will help global investors to participate in the formation of the "Shanghai Price", thereby further enhancing China's international influence in the global copper industry.
Chenghu Shi, managing director of Hong Kong Panshi Financial Co., Ltd., told reporters that large foreign mines and mainstream traders are closely monitoring the progress of international copper contracts. In the future, if the international market uses Shanghai INE international copper RMB price to price international trade contracts, then China's right to speak in the price of copper will be realized.
The largest country in production and the largest consumption country, combining the two into one.
The market dominates the big country, and the pricing dominates the big country, combining the two into one.
Provide a risk hedging tool for the international market
One characteristic of copper business is good cash flow, but small profits. Therefore, a method of "Five Differences to Make Money" is circulating in the industry. The so-called "five differences" refer to time difference, interest rate difference, exchange rate difference, product difference and price difference. An industry insider told reporters that there is a characteristic of copper prices in the international arena, that is, "one single step, move the whole body", "today's London copper price fell sharply, tomorrow's Shanghai copper price will also fall, and this time difference can be grasped. For example, the sea surface of the ocean can't be flat, so the unevenness can be used to make profits.
After the international copper futures are listed, they will be paralleled with Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures, and the prices of the three will be more closely linked, and there will be more combinations of spreads, which will evolve richer arbitrage tools.
Through the international copper contract, the original barrier between Shanghai Copper and London Copper will be broken, and foreign participation will be unimpeded. Chenghu Shi said that this means that there will be no cross-border barriers and no exchange rate risk arbitrage transactions between Shanghai copper futures and international copper futures. This will significantly improve the cost control and profit status of domestic copper importing companies and copper smelting companies.
An industry insider told reporters that compared with the London Metal Exchange, there is an additional price reference platform and a platform for delivery of goods for companies exporting to China from abroad. “After all, Shanghai International Copper Futures has close proximity to the world’s largest consumer, the geographical advantage of the inventory distribution center." He said.
Lai Wei, chief metal analyst at a futures company believes that the international copper price theoretically contains three important variables: LME copper price, bonded zone premium and RMB exchange rate. Companies can use international copper contracts to lock in exchange rate risks and avoid exchange rate exposure.
A few days ago, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China Gang Yi said: “Under the new situation, the internationalization of RMB can further improve the support system for the use of local currency on the basis of insisting on market dominance, and create a better environment and conditions for the role of the market. "International copper futures also helped promote the internationalization of RMB.
"One of the key issues in the internationalization of RMB is, what can international investors do with RMB? With Shanghai crude oil futures, they can buy crude oil in China, and with international copper futures, they can buy copper in China... China is giving international holders of RMB more investment opportunities." An industry insider said that international copper futures will surely become another new business card for China to aspire to the right to speak in pricing.
At present, China has six internationalized futures products, namely crude oil futures, iron ore futures, PTA futures, NR 20 rubber futures, low-sulfur fuel oil futures, and international copper futures. The internationalization of futures markets is accelerating. Xinghai Fang, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said, "Further expand the scope of futures products opening to the outside world to better meet the risk management needs of overseas entities and investment institutions" and "tighten the bond of interest for common development between China and the world."

中国向全球铜定价中心冲刺

执大象，天下往。
在全球大宗商品市场中，谁掌握定价话语权，谁就掌握市场主动权。
11月19日，上海期货交易所全资子公司上海国际能源交易中心隆重推出国际铜期货合约，中国市场对全球铜供应链的定价功能将进一步攀升，我国提升对重要大宗商品的价格影响力再落新子。
在保持现有上海期货交易所沪铜期货合约（面向中国境内）不变的基础上，上海国际能源交易中心上市国际铜期货，沿用我国原油期货的“国际平台、净价交易、保税交割、人民币计价”的交易模式，全面引入境外交易者。
“此举将使外国投资者在全球最大的铜消费国进行交易。全球最大的工业金属进口国和消费国再次显示出其在市场上的主导地位。”路透社评价。英国《金融时报》评论，上海正在对伦敦在金属交易中的主导地位发起挑战，国际铜合约有可能成为全球定价基准。
一直以来，我国期货市场有一个愿景：在国际大宗商品市场上形成具有定价话语权的“中国价格”。国际铜期货的诞生，意味着在全球铜产业链上形成世界参与的“中国价格”渐行渐近。
铜期货的华丽演变
不久前，习近平总书记在浦东开发开放30周年庆祝大会上提出“提升重要大宗商品的价格影响力，更好服务和引领实体经济发展。”铜期货发展之路，正是一个典型诠释。
铜是重要的工业金属和宏观经济的晴雨表。我国是全球最大的精炼铜生产、消费和进口国。2019年我国精炼铜生产978.4万吨，全球占比41.24％，消费1208.0万吨，全球占比50.72％，净进口323.4万吨，均居世界首位。铜市场化和国际化程度高，境内外期现货市场发达，产业链上下游企业众多，风险管理需求强烈。
早在1993年，上海期货交易所前身上海金属交易所推出我国国内首个铜期货合约。经过多年发展，铜期货改变了现货市场的定价模式，还为企业对冲价格风险提供了有效工具。“沪铜期货价格已成为国内铜现货行业的定价基准。”中国有色金属工业协会副会长尚福山告诉经济日报记者。产业参与期货市场的历史长，基础好，铜期货一度是中国期货市场的一面旗帜，被期市称为“铜老大”。
实力决定话语权。从全球视野看，铜的国际定价权有一个漂移弧线。
在20世纪90年代以前，世界有色金属的主要定价中心在伦敦（伦敦金属交易所，英文简称LME）和纽约（纽约商品交易所，英文简称COMEX）。20世纪90年代以后，随着我国期货市场的建立和发展，以及实体经济的崛起，上海（上海期货交易所，英文简称SHFE）在全球有色金属市场上的定价话语权逐步增强。随着我国成为全球铜生产和消费第一大国，国际有色金属市场逐步形成了伦敦、纽约、上海三足鼎立的格局。
亲历者上海鑫德投资发展有限公司副总经理朱泽文告诉记者，最初上海期货交易所在有色金属里面只有铜和铝的交易。那个时候，上海有色期货市场几乎是伦敦的“影子市场”。“伦敦金属交易所收盘后，一整天上海价格就在伦敦收盘价格附近波动，波动幅度很小，交易量也很小。”朱泽文回忆。
随着我国加入WTO，中国有色金属的产量和消费量、进口量持续爆炸性增长，上海交易所因其规范化以及服务实体经济能力获得了巨大发展。“上海价格”反过来开始对伦敦金属交易所的期货价格产生巨大影响。“不少国外交易员不得不凌晨起来工作，以获得有利交易地位。”朱泽文说。
国际铜的星辰大海
沪铜期货的影响力与日俱增，为何又要推出国际铜期货呢？
上海期货交易所党委书记、理事长姜岩接受经济日报记者采访表示，我国存在国内含税和境内关外保税两个铜现货市场。简单说，就是现货“池子”不一样。含税市场反映的是国内市场供求关系；保税市场则反映远东时区的国际市场供求关系。
因此，沪铜期货面向国内市场，其价格是国内现货贸易的定价基准。而推出国际铜期货，其价格更直接地反映全球现货市场，特别是远东时区国际市场的供需情况，能更好地服务企业国际化风险管理需求，提升中国成为全球铜定价中心的竞争力。
目前，我国保税区铜库存数量超过国内完税铜库存数量和伦敦金属交易所（LME）全球仓库库存总和。但上海期铜的价格不能为关外贸易定价，国际贸易中，中国企业使用美元定价的合同，即伦敦金属交易所LME的美元价格。
尽管中国买家有全球单一国家最大的采购量，尽管中国交易者在上海期铜和LME期铜之间的套利交易是LME铜交易量的重要来源，但封闭的市场无法造就真正的强者，成就定价话语权，因此，国际铜期货破茧而出，应运而生。
国际铜的“池子”连上国际市场的“大海”。中国有色金属工业协会党委书记葛红林表示，国际铜期货的推出，为全球的铜产业链提供了全新的风险管理工具，提供了以人民币计价的透明、公允的国际市场价格。
国际铜研究组秘书长保罗·怀特表示，未来以中国为代表的远东市场将在铜的生产、消费和贸易上继续贡献主要的增长量。上海国际铜期货将有助于全球投资者共同参与“上海价格”的形成，从而进一步提升中国在全球铜产业中的国际影响力。
香港磐石金融有限公司董事总经理石成虎告诉记者，国外的大型矿山和主流贸易商在密切关注国际铜合约的进展。将来如果国际市场采用上海INE国际铜人民币的价格来作价国际贸易合同，那中国在铜上的定价话语权就算实现了。
生产第一大国，消费第一大国，合二为一。
市场主导大国，定价主导大国，合二为一。
为国际市场提供更丰富的风险对冲工具
铜业生意，一个特点是现金流好，但利润薄。因此，业内流传着一套“五差赚钱法”。所谓“五差”，就是指时间差、利率差、汇率差、积差和价差。一位业内人士告诉记者，铜价在国际上有个特点，就是“牵一发而动全身”，“今天伦敦铜价大跌，明天上海铜价也会跌，而这个时间差就可以把握。好比大洋的海面都不可能是平的，这样的不平就可用来赚出利润。
国际铜期货上市之后，将与沪铜期货，LME铜期货三者并行，三者价格联系也将更为紧密，会出现更多价差的组合，从而演化出更丰富的套利工具。
通过国际铜合约，原有的沪铜和伦铜之间的阻隔将被打通，外资参与畅通无阻。石成虎表示，这意味着在沪铜期货和国际铜期货之间将存在无跨境障碍、无汇率风险的套利交易。这将显著改善国内铜进口企业以及铜冶炼企业的成本控制和利润状况。
一位业内人士告诉记者，对于境外出口到中国的企业而言，相较于伦敦金属交易所，多了一个价格参照平台和可以交割货物的平台，“毕竟上海国际铜期货具备靠近全球最大消费地，库存集散地的地理优势。”他说。
期货有限公司首席金属分析师卫来认为，由于国际铜价格中理论上包涵了LME铜价、保税区溢价和人民币汇率三个重要变量。企业可以利用国际铜合约锁定汇率风险，规避汇率敞口。
日前，中国人民银行行长易纲表示：“新形势下的人民币国际化可在坚持市场主导的基础上，进一步完善对本币使用的支持体系，为市场作用的发挥创造更好的环境和条件。”国际铜期货亦助推人民币国际化。
“人民币国际化一个关键问题是，国际投资者拿着人民币能干什么？有了上海原油期货，可以在中国买原油，有了国际铜期货，可以在中国买铜……中国正在给国际上人民币的持有者以更多的投资机会。”一位业内人士表示，国际铜期货必将成为中国问鼎定价话语权的又一张新名片。
目前，我国已有6个国际化期货品种，分别是原油期货、铁矿石期货、PTA期货、20号胶期货、低硫燃料油期货、国际铜期货，期市国际化加速推进。证监会副主席方星海表示，“进一步扩大期货品种对外开放范围，更好满足境外实体企业和投资机构风险管理需求”，“拧紧中国与世界共同发展的利益纽带。”